Case Study

Sensitivity Analysis — IatrogenicMedications.bayes

One-at-a-time sensitivity: perturbs each structural coefficient by ±% and shows how the chosen outcome changes. The widest bars are the weights the model's conclusions depend on most.

Why sensitivity analysis matters

Sensitivity answers the planning question: which inputs matter most for this outcome, and by how much? Each score is the interventional effect of a one-standard-deviation shift in the source node, propagated through all downstream paths to the target. Unlike feature importance in black-box models, these scores carry a causal interpretation — they measure the effect of a do(), not a correlation.

Sensitivity analysis guides resource allocation. A high-sensitivity node that is tractable to change is a natural intervention target. A high-sensitivity node that is difficult to change tells you the system is largely outside your influence from the levers currently in the model. The comparison between nodes is only meaningful when inputs are standardized — which is why standard-deviation scaling is essential here.

Tornado — impact on outcome
weight decreased by ±%
weight increased by ±%
both bars anchored at zero; length = deviation from base
Red bar: outcome when this weight is reduced by ±%. Blue bar: outcome when increased by ±%. Both anchored at zero (base prediction).