How to read these
Each case opens with how the climate risk was being scored and walks through the structural mechanism the register was hiding. Model files ship with every case.
The cases
Utility Wildfire Risk → The utility knew wildfire was a top risk. It had a score. It had a regulatory framework.
None of it connected an equipment-deferral decision to a fire-probability change. The risk register described what was happening; it did not describe what to do, and it could not be queried that way.
Climate & ESG Risk → Climate risk has a causal structure. The risk matrix does not represent it.
Climate risks share drivers, interact through mechanisms, and fire jointly in the tail. The standard register scores them as independent rows. The causal model represents the interactions the register erases.
Next
For the methods behind these cases, see Risk Aggregation and Why the Risk Matrix Fails. For the wider portfolio across all five risk types, see About Risk.