Climate risks share drivers. They interact through mechanisms. They fire jointly in the tail. The standard register scores them as independent rows. A causal model represents the interactions the register erases — and the cases below show how much the difference matters when the question is whether to defer an asset, accept a portfolio of exposures, or argue the case to a regulator.
These two cases are different shapes of the same structural gap: a static register that hides what a causal model exposes. Model files ship with every case.
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▸Utility Wildfire Risk — The utility knew wildfire was a top risk. It had a score. It had a regulatory framework.
None of it connected an equipment-deferral decision to a fire-probability change. The risk register described what was happening; it did not describe what to do, and it could not be queried that way.
▸Climate & ESG Risk — Climate risk has a causal structure. The risk matrix does not represent it.
Climate risks share drivers, interact through mechanisms, and fire jointly in the tail. The standard register scores them as independent rows. The causal model represents the interactions the register erases.
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For the methods behind these cases, see Risk Aggregation and Why the Risk Matrix Fails. For the wider portfolio across all five risk types, see About Risk.