This Is For You If…
- Your models can't explain their own recommendations. "The model ranked it highest" is not a defensible answer to a regulator, a board, or a claimant. If you can't trace the recommendation back to a causal structure, you don't control the decision — you're ratifying it.
- Your analytics stop at description. Dashboards tell you what happened. If that's where your decision support ends, you're paying for historical records. The question that actually matters is what happens if you act — and that requires a different kind of model.
- The knowledge that makes your models right is sitting in someone's head. When that person leaves, the model doesn't know what they knew. That's not a talent risk. It's a structural one — and it compounds every year you don't fix it.
- You already know a wrong decision is expensive. Wrong pricing, wrong capital allocation, wrong intervention — each measurable in millions. The question isn't whether your current model can be wrong. It's whether it can be wrong in ways you'd never detect until after the loss.
The Engagement
The engagement produces a team that can reason counterfactually, build causal models, and defend every decision under scrutiny — without me in the room. Your risk analysts. Your actuaries. Your domain experts. Running the next model themselves. Extending it when the problem changes. Explaining it to a regulator or a board without a consultant present.
If your problem doesn't need causal reasoning, I'll tell you in the first conversation. But if your models can't answer what happens if you act — or whether the last bad outcome was preventable — then you already know what's missing.
Education: Golden Gate University San Francisco (MBA) · Stanford (AI) · Johns Hopkins (Data Science)
Domains: Insurance · Financial Services · Energy · Utilities · Healthcare · Technology · Manufacturing · Cybersecurity · Infrastructure
Selected clients: University of California · Zuckerberg General Hospital · NVIDIA · Amazon · Toyota · Verizon · Pacific Gas & Electric · Merrill Lynch · Chevron · Bank of America · ConocoPhillips · Caltex · Tonal · Fitbit
Let's Talk
Thirty minutes. No pitch, no slides. Bring what's keeping you up at night — the decision where you suspect the current approach is wrong but can't prove it. I'll sketch the causal structure on the spot: which variables drive which outcomes, where the confounders are, what the model needs to answer. By the end you'll know whether causal reasoning changes the answer. If your existing tools are sufficient, I'll tell you — and you'll have saved the engagement.
A causal model built on the wrong question is worse than no model. The engagement doesn't start until we've both agreed the problem is real and the approach is right.
Pick the decision that keeps you up at night — the one where you know the spreadsheet is wrong but can't prove it. That's the conversation worth having.