The operations & ESG cases.

Supply Chain Risk → The risk you didn’t know was there.

Three suppliers in three countries. The scorecard called it diversification. The causal model found one fabricator with three labels — $23M in concentration risk scored as managed.

Quality & Defect Attribution → The defect rate is 2.3%. Which line, which material, which operator?

A predictive model can tell you defects are correlated with night shift on line 4. A causal model tells you whether changing the line, the shift, or the supplier reduces the rate — and by how much.

Training Effectiveness → The training completion rate is 94%. The performance metric was unmeasured.

Completion was answerable from existing systems; the actual reason the program existed was not. The cheaper metric won by default. A causal model is what isolates the training effect from everything else that affects performance.

Climate & ESG Risk → Climate risk has a causal structure. The risk matrix does not represent it.

Climate risks share drivers, interact through mechanisms, and fire jointly in the tail. The standard register scores them as independent rows. The causal model represents the interactions the register erases.