How to read these
Each case opens with the statistical claim that looked supportive and walks through the causal structure the decision actually rests on. Model files ship with every case.
The cases
Criminal Causation → The expert’s statistics are accurate. Their logic is backward.
A frequency stated forward (the probability of the evidence given innocence) is not what the question asks (the probability of innocence given the evidence). The prosecutor’s fallacy is a Rung-error; the causal model is what makes the direction explicit.
Elective Sequencing & Mastery → The elective that looks most effective is the one chosen by students most likely to succeed regardless.
Self-selection makes any observational comparison of elective effectiveness biased in the direction of the most-selected option. The causal model isolates the elective’s contribution from the student’s prior trajectory.
Next
For the methods behind these cases, see Pearl’s Ladder (population vs. individual reasoning) and Causal Modeling. For the wider portfolio, see Cases.