How to read these
Each case opens with what the standard register or scorecard said, walks through what the causal model showed instead, and ends with the decision the model actually supports. Model files ship with every case.
The cases
Utility Wildfire Risk → The utility knew wildfire was a top risk. It had a score. It had a regulatory framework.
None of it connected an equipment-deferral decision to a fire-probability change. The risk register described what was happening; it did not describe what to do, and it could not be queried that way.
Utility Grid Risk → Capital deferral decisions are made as if the grid is static.
Load is shifting, mix is shifting, and the controls available now will look different in five years. A static reliability model assumes the deferred asset will be needed for the same job; the causal model represents what happens when the job changes.
Asset Reliability → The control that prevented the problem you can’t see.
Three unplanned outages looks like a failure. The causal model asked how many would have occurred without the program. The KPI was wrong because the intervention was working.
Next
For the methods behind these cases, see Causal Modeling (what a causal model is) and Time-Varying Models (when the system in motion needs a dynamic model). For the wider portfolio, see Cases.